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Can the Eagles Keep Winning Ugly Games?

The Philadelphia Eagles have the league’s best record at 7-1 but have escaped with wins in several games. They have a strong ground attack that ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 132 YPG and has masked many of their defensive deficiencies to date. The Eagles acquired Deandre Swift from the Detroit Lions and has already paid the team huge dividends ranking 4th in the NFL with 571 rushing yards and 8th gaining 4.9 yards per attempt. 


The Eagles offense ranks third in scoring offense averaging 28 PPG, but will be going up against the fourth-best scoring defense that is allowing 17.1 PPG. The Eagles are a league-best converting 50% of their third-down attempts and many of them are achieved with the now infamous ‘tush-push’ plunge. However, the Cowboys rank 7th-best allowing opponents to convert just 34.5% of their third downs. 


Led my Penn State standout and current right defensive end Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defensive front is by far the best the Eagles have faced this season. Parson ranks sixth in the NFL with nine tackles for loss. The rest of the front four are anchored by two veterans in Left defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and nose tackle Jonathan Hankins and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who was drafted in the third round of the 2021 draft out of UCLA. This front four has accounted for 11 of their 18 sacks on the season.


The Cowboys’ secondary may be the best part of their defense led by cornerback DaRon Bland, who has four interceptions, second-most, in the NFL this season. The defense ranks best in the NFL averaging an interception on every 4.46% of plays run so you can be sure the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to be getting the ball thrown quickly. 


Last week in a 38-31 win over the Washington Commanders, the Eagles chose to play the majority of the game in a zone defense. The result was that Commanders quarterback Sam Howell threw for 397 yards on 39-for-52 passing including four touchdowns and one interception. The Commanders outgained the Eagles by 98 total yards. Dak Prescott will have more than 400 passing yards if the Eagles play mostly zone defense and they can be exposed even more so in man coverages with weapons like Michael Gallup, Brandon Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and tight end Jake Furguson. The Eagles have given up a large amount of receiving yards to opposing tight ends over the last three seasons.


The Situational Team Angles You Need to Know

The following situational angles support the Cowboys.

·      Head coach McCarty is 15-4 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 235 or more passing yards per game.

·      McCarthy is 29-14-1 ATS following back-to-back games in which his defense allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards.

·      21-10 ATS when facing a conference foe in games played over the last three seasons.


The following situational team angles support the Eagles.

·      8-1 ATS has a home favorite of seven or fewer points in games played over the last three seasons.

·      Cowboys are 2-8 SU losing 16 units when facing an above average offensive team that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play in games played in the second half of each of the past three seasons.


A Situational Betting Algorithm for this Matchup

Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 SU record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons.


My NFL Week 9 Best Bet is on the Dallas Cowboys using the money line currently offered at +136 at DraftKings.  An alternative betting strategy for the $100 bettor is to bet $75 preflop getting the three points and then look for the Eagles to score first or retake the lead in the first half action and then get the remaining $30 on the money line, which ought to be significantly above +200. I also like the OVER 23.5 Cowboy points at +114 vig.