MLB Picks

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MLB Expert Picks for April 25

The MLB landscape has already seen a separation in the Divisional standings between the weak and elite teams this season. The worst team remains the Chicago White Sox, who are 3-21 winning just 12.5% of their games with $100 bettors having lost $1,581 resulting in a horrid -66% RPO despite averaging a 174 underdog wager using the money line. The Houston Astros do have a significant problem as they have tripped badly to start their season with an ugly 7-18 record averaging a -126 favorite using the money line resulting in a -50% ROI losing $1,580 for the $100 bettor. 

Avoiding teams like the CWS that may be severely undervalued in the sports betting markets has been prudent over the past seasons. Teams that are 15 or more games under 0.500 playing game sin April and May and priced as underdogs have gone just 44-81 for 35% winning bets that have averaged a 170 wager and lost $1,325 per $100 wager resulting in a -11 % ROI over the past five seasons. 

The most profitable team is the Cleveland Guardians, who are 17-7 winning 74% of their games and earning their $100 backers a $976 profit for a solid 33% ROI averaging a -126 favorite using the money line. 

The Best Bets for the LA Dodgers vs Washington Nationals game

The Dodgers will take on the Nationals in the final game of their four-game series set to start at 1:30 EST, Thursday. The Dodgers are favored by -180 with a posted total of 9 runs as offered at DraftKings.

The Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 149-92-5 Under record good for 62% winning bets over the past five seasons earning a 20% Roi and making the Dimne Bettor a $28,400 profit. The requirements are:

·      Bet the Under in a game with a total of 8.5 or more runs.

·      One of the teams (Dodgers) is averaging four or more walks-per-game on the season.

·      That same team has allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games.

If our team (Dodgers) has allowed three or fewer runs in each of the last three games and the current game is the final game of any series the Under has posted a highly profitable 19-9 record good for 68% winning bets earning a 29% Roi and making the Dime Bettor a $7,930 profit over the past five years.

Who is today’s Dodger Starter?

The Dodgers will look for the sweep with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the hill, who was signed amidst tremendous fanfare to a 12-year $325MM contract and had never thrown a single pitch at the MLB level. He has pitched since 2017 for the Orix Buffaloes and amassed a career 75-30 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.915 WHIP including 986 strikeouts spanning 967 innings of work (9.2 Ks-per-9 ratio).

Yamamoto has had just 57 batted ball events this season but the talent is quite evident starting with a 32% strikeout and 4.5% walk percentage. He has allowed an average launch angle of just 10 degrees reflecting the heavy downward action he has with his pitches. He has averaged 95 MPH with his fastball, 91 MPH with a cutter, 83 MPH with his sweeping slider, and 78 MPH with his curveball, which he rarely throws. If that was not enough of an arsenal he features a splitter 27% of all pitches and averages knee-buckling 89 MPH. His splitter is his out pitch, and it is already revered as one of the best in MLB.

The Nationals are not a strong hitting team batting 0.232 and scoring an anemic 3.6 RPG on the season. Moreover, they are batting just 0.222 and scoring 3.2 RPG in 11 home games this season. They have two batters averaging better than 90 MPH exit velocities with Luis Garcia, Jr and Joey Gallo. So, Yamamoto is expected to dominate this lineup completing at least six innings, but may be on a pitch count that will prevent any work after the sixth inning.

What Do Your Predictive Models Tell Us?

The predictive models forecast that Yamamoto has an 82% probability of completing six innings and that the Dodgers bullpen will allow no more than one run. In past road games since 2019, in which the Dodgers met these performance measures has seen the Under has gone a highly profitable 29-11-1 good for 72% winning bets. 

The Best Bet Player Props for Thursday

·      Bet the Phillies Nick Castellanos to get a hit priced at -190 at FanDuel.

·      Bet the Athletics Shea Langeliers to get a hit priced at -130.

·      Bet the Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record 7+ strikeouts priced at +105.

·      Bet the Mariners Luis Castillo to record 6+ strikeouts priced at +105.

·      Bet the Yankees Nestor Cortez to allow 2+ earned runs priced at -125.